Hi Everyone, there’s been a lot going on so I would like to discuss a general overview of how COVID-19 is behaving as of June 7th, 2020. This will include a few updates to past posts.
Spread of COVID-19 in the US
I really wish there was a more unified message, but the rate of daily cases varies state by state and are almost equally split between trending up, down, or plateauing. For the states on the rise, such as California, Texas, and Florida, it could be reflective of more social gatherings and these impacts are what we expected to see starting around this time after Memorial Day celebrations. Areas with decreases in cases, such as New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, could expect to see a slower rise next week depending on how easing restrictions in those states progresses. Overall, while there are some areas increasing, the country as a whole is seeing relatively stable cases.
The forecast for the US is a little less pleasant. Due to civil unrest and a large amount of protesting happening around the country, we can expect to see a change in case numbers by mid-June. For people who are wearing masks and keeping distanced properly, the activity is low risk. However not all areas have high mask use, and marching, chanting, and other protest activities are not exactly conducive to reducing the spread of COVID-19. The Black Lives Matters movement is important and we’ll see starting the middle of the month as to the impact on the spread of COVID-19.
For those that have attended protests, I beg you to consider isolating and doing your best to stay masked and socially distanced for at least a week before becoming more social. Each time you attend a protest you reset your exposure risk and need to give yourself time to figure out if you have become infected. Please protest, but do it safely.
Prevention of COVID-19
The body for evidence showing that mask use reduces the spread of COVID-19 continues to grow with a paper published on June 1st in the Lancet showing that using a face mask can reduce the risk of infection by 85%! While this has greater efficacy in health care settings than in community based ones, it’s still great news and bodes promise for how to keep people safe as many return to work. The paper also points out that a physical distance of 1 meter or roughly 3 feet can reduce the risk of infection by 82% and this good news is for both healthcare and community settings. To quote the paper: “This study supports universal face mask use, because masks were equally effective in both health-care and community settings when adjusted for type of mask use. Growing evidence for pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 further supports universal face mask use and distancing.” [link]
So as you go out whether it’s returning to work or just to go shopping, remember to social distance, wear a mask, and wash your hands frequently. Slowing the spread of COVID-19 is the best thing we can do to maintain the normal we have, rather than setting ourselves up for a second wave.
Treatment of COVID-19
Here’s where it gets tricky. While my last post went in depth on a paper from the Lancet showing the risks of hydroxychloroquine, that paper has since been retracted as the data set isn’t be shared by one of the authors and the parts of data people can compare to don’t match. This suspicion could be easily put to rest if the data set were released, but as the company that generated the data has said it won’t the paper has been retracted and thus should be disregarded for future use and reference. [link]
A new study’s preliminary results out of England show that hydroxychloroquine has “no beneficial effect” on how long patients were in the hospital for COVID-19. While other numbers within the study showed a possible increased risk of death for those who were taking the drug, the change was not shown to be statistically significant. [link] Another study looking to see if hydroxychloroquine was capable of preventing infection found that there was no effect on infection if exposed. This double-blind, placebo controlled, randomized trial took a very through approach and found that for 821 patients, there was little to no benefit of taking the drug. [link]
Currently it looks like remdesivir has modest benefits in treating COVID-19, but the search for a silver bullet continues. Due to the nature of viral diseases, it may be some time until we are able to mass produce a specific antiviral. In the meantime there are ongoing trials of antibodies and plasma from patients who have recovered from COVID-19. As these studies progress, it will be important to keep in mind the feasibility of these treatments as well as just how beneficial they are.
Forecast for June
June is likely going to be a messy, chaotic month for COVID-19. Too much has happened since Memorial day to clearly separate out one cause for cases from another. If we had widespread mask use and contract tracing it would likely slow the spread and identify possible hot spots before they spread; without these tools we are at the mercy of the group efforts of everyone going to work, shopping, and having any kind of interaction outside of the house holds.
For areas that are currently seeing either a plateau or an increase in cases, expect those numbers to begin increasing and possibly begin to hit the exponential threshold of growth unless precautions are put in place. Since this means either slowing down or reversing reopening, expect to see a lot of goal posts moved to prevent any further shutdowns from occurring this month.
If we as individuals do well and hold the line by wearing masks, practicing social distancing, and washing our hands we will be able to prevent the spread. Remember that SARS-CoV-2 can take up to two weeks to cause COVID-19 in someone, and that this is an especially pernicious disease that can spread before you feel sick and continue to spread even after you start feeling better.
Stay safe and hold the line,
-Your friendly neighborhood scientist, Colleen
PMP in the Lab 